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The Population Biology of Tuberculosis$
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Christopher Dye

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780691154626

Published to Princeton Scholarship Online: October 2017

DOI: 10.23943/princeton/9780691154626.001.0001

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Concepts and Models

Concepts and Models

Chapter:
(p.26) Chapter 2 Concepts and Models
Source:
The Population Biology of Tuberculosis
Author(s):

Christopher Dye

Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:10.23943/princeton/9780691154626.003.0002

This chapter discusses the epidemiology of tuberculosis from the perspective of population biology. The central concept of population biology with reference to TB control is that a population of organisms (here TB cases) cannot persist if the generation case reproduction number, R, is maintained below the critical value of one. Hence, if one case of TB always generates less than one secondary case on average (R < 1), then Mycobacterium tuberculosis is doomed to extinction. The chapter first provides an overview of the empirical epidemiology of TB before introducing a family of dynamic models to investigate the key questions about TB epidemiology and control. The models are used to assess TB transmission, reinfection and relapse, variation in infectiousness, rise and fall of TB during the industrial revolution, and the characteristics of TB epidemics.

Keywords:   epidemiology, tuberculosis, population biology, TB control, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, empirical epidemiology, TB transmission, reinfection, relapse, infectiousness

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