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Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics$
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Odo Diekmann, Hans Heesterbeek, and Tom Britton

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780691155395

Published to Princeton Scholarship Online: October 2017

DOI: 10.23943/princeton/9780691155395.001.0001

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Estimators of R0 derived from mechanistic models

Estimators of R0 derived from mechanistic models

Chapter:
(p.309) Chapter Thirteen Estimators of R0 derived from mechanistic models
Source:
Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics
Author(s):

Odo Diekmann

Hans Heesterbeek

Tom Britton

Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:10.23943/princeton/9780691155395.003.0013

This chapter presents a selection of methods to estimate a value of the basic reproduction number R₀ from a variety of available data. The estimation of R₀ is important, as these play a major role, for example, in gauging outbreak potential, and in public health decisions on prevention and control effort. The chapter focuses on three topics: (i) generalizing estimators presented earlier in the book based on final-size epidemic data or age-structured endemic data; (ii) controlled (transmission) experiments performed to estimate transmission potential and duration of infectivity; and (iii) the infectious agent is emerging, either for the first time or for the first time in a particular host population, so very little is known and outbreak data are becoming available “in real time,” as the epidemic progresses.

Keywords:   infectious disease, reproduction number, disease transmission, intrinsic growth rate, outbreak, epidemic

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