Contents
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Which Factors Matter, How Much, Why, and When? Which Factors Matter, How Much, Why, and When?
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Spheres of Information Spheres of Information
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I. Military Factors I. Military Factors
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I.1. The Armed Forces’ Internal Cohesion I.1. The Armed Forces’ Internal Cohesion
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I.1.A. Ethnic, Religious, Tribal, and Regional Splits I.1.A. Ethnic, Religious, Tribal, and Regional Splits
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I.1.B. Generational Divisions: Senior vs. Junior Officers I.1.B. Generational Divisions: Senior vs. Junior Officers
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I.1.C. Divisions between Officers and NCOs/Privates I.1.C. Divisions between Officers and NCOs/Privates
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I.1.D. Divisions between Elite vs. Regular Units I.1.D. Divisions between Elite vs. Regular Units
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I.1.E. Splits between Army, Other Branches, and Security Sector Entities I.1.E. Splits between Army, Other Branches, and Security Sector Entities
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I.1.F. Sociopolitical Divisions between Military Elites I.1.F. Sociopolitical Divisions between Military Elites
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I.2. Professional Soldiers vs. Conscripts I.2. Professional Soldiers vs. Conscripts
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I.3. The Generals’ Perceptions of Regime Legitimacy I.3. The Generals’ Perceptions of Regime Legitimacy
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I.4. The Army’s Past Conduct toward Society I.4. The Army’s Past Conduct toward Society
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II. State Factors II. State Factors
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II.1. The Regime’s Treatment of the Military II.1. The Regime’s Treatment of the Military
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II.1.A. Taking Care of the Personnel’s Material Welfare II.1.A. Taking Care of the Personnel’s Material Welfare
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II.1.B. Taking Care of the Army II.1.B. Taking Care of the Army
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II.1.C. Appropriateness of Missions II.1.C. Appropriateness of Missions
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II.1.D. The Generals’ Professional Autonomy and Decision-Making Authority II.1.D. The Generals’ Professional Autonomy and Decision-Making Authority
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II.1.E. Fairness in Top Appointments II.1.E. Fairness in Top Appointments
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II.1.F. The Military’s Prestige and Public Esteem II.1.F. The Military’s Prestige and Public Esteem
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II.2. Regime Directions to the Military II.2. Regime Directions to the Military
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III. Societal Factors III. Societal Factors
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III.1. The Size, Composition, and Nature of Demonstrations III.1. The Size, Composition, and Nature of Demonstrations
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III.2. The Popularity of the Uprising III.2. The Popularity of the Uprising
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III.3. Fraternization III.3. Fraternization
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IV. External Factors IV. External Factors
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IV.1. The Potential for Foreign Intervention IV.1. The Potential for Foreign Intervention
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IV.2. Foreign Affairs IV.2. Foreign Affairs
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IV.3. Revolutionary Diffusion IV.3. Revolutionary Diffusion
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IV.4. Foreign Exposure of Officers IV.4. Foreign Exposure of Officers
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Ranking the Factors: The Top Six Ranking the Factors: The Top Six
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Knowns and Unknowns Knowns and Unknowns
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Known Knowns Known Knowns
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Known Unknowns Known Unknowns
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Unknown Unknowns Unknown Unknowns
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Conclusion Conclusion
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1 What Determines the Army’s Reaction to an Uprising?
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Published:February 2016
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Abstract
This chapter lays out an analytical framework and outlines in detail the internal and external variables that affect the armed forces’ responses to revolutions. The army draws on four separate domains of input as it formulates its response to a revolution. In descending order of importance these are the military establishment, the state, society, and the external environment. The chapter also introduces six factors that can help analyst come up with a cohesive and concise report with the correct prediction—at least most of the time. In descending order of significance, these are: the military’s internal cohesion; the presence of a volunteer or conscript army; the regime’s treatment of the military; the generals’ view of the regime legitimacy; the size, composition, and nature of protests; and the potential for foreign intervention.
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