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Pricing the Planet's FutureThe Economics of Discounting in an Uncertain World$
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Christian Gollier

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780691148762

Published to Princeton Scholarship Online: October 2017

DOI: 10.23943/princeton/9780691148762.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM PRINCETON SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.princeton.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Princeton University Press, 2019. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in PRSO for personal use.date: 19 October 2019

Markov Switches and Extreme Events

Markov Switches and Extreme Events

Chapter:
(p.74) 5 Markov Switches and Extreme Events
Source:
Pricing the Planet's Future
Author(s):

Christian Gollier

Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:10.23943/princeton/9780691148762.003.0005

This chapter examines the effects of a dramatic switch in the dynamics of economic growth for the term structure of the discount rate over the longer term. Economies undergo radical transformations. One such radical transformation was called the “industrial revolution” which has had a long-lasting effect on economic growth. The chapter considers the possibility of a reversion to the pre-industrial age, at least in terms of an absence of growth, in the distant future, or any other effects on the current economic growth rate. Other less persistent—but more frequent—transformations observed in the past were wars or great economic depressions. It is thus important to include the possibility of such changes in the dynamics of growth in the analysis of the term structure of the discount rate.

Keywords:   term structure, economic growth, extreme events, Markov switches, random walk, radical economic transformations, economic depressions, economic reversions, discount rate

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