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Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics$
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Odo Diekmann, Hans Heesterbeek, and Tom Britton

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780691155395

Published to Princeton Scholarship Online: October 2017

DOI: 10.23943/princeton/9780691155395.001.0001

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Dynamics at the demographic time scale

Dynamics at the demographic time scale

(p.73) Chapter Four Dynamics at the demographic time scale
Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics

Odo Diekmann

Hans Heesterbeek

Tom Britton

Princeton University Press

This chapter focuses on the influence of the demography on the persistence of an infective agent, and vice versa on the influence of the agent on host population growth and persistence. When new “fuel” is provided through the replacement of immune individuals by newborn susceptibles, the infective agent may strike again at a later time or even persist and become endemic. Whether we observe repeated outbreaks or relatively small fluctuations around a steady endemic level depends on the temporal and spatial scale that we, as investigators of the system, choose to monitor and/or to model. The chapter also suggests that two parameters, rather than just one, are needed to distinguish between a single outbreak (which may reoccur much later by reintroduction of the agent from the outside) and the endemic situation.

Keywords:   demography, infective agent, host population growth, endemic, infectious disease, outbreak

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