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Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics$
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Odo Diekmann, Hans Heesterbeek, and Tom Britton

Print publication date: 2012

Print ISBN-13: 9780691155395

Published to Princeton Scholarship Online: October 2017

DOI: 10.23943/princeton/9780691155395.001.0001

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Estimators of R0 derived from mechanistic models

Estimators of R0 derived from mechanistic models

(p.309) Chapter Thirteen Estimators of R0 derived from mechanistic models
Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics

Odo Diekmann

Hans Heesterbeek

Tom Britton

Princeton University Press

This chapter presents a selection of methods to estimate a value of the basic reproduction number R₀ from a variety of available data. The estimation of R₀ is important, as these play a major role, for example, in gauging outbreak potential, and in public health decisions on prevention and control effort. The chapter focuses on three topics: (i) generalizing estimators presented earlier in the book based on final-size epidemic data or age-structured endemic data; (ii) controlled (transmission) experiments performed to estimate transmission potential and duration of infectivity; and (iii) the infectious agent is emerging, either for the first time or for the first time in a particular host population, so very little is known and outbreak data are becoming available “in real time,” as the epidemic progresses.

Keywords:   infectious disease, reproduction number, disease transmission, intrinsic growth rate, outbreak, epidemic

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