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Knowing the AdversaryLeaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations$
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Keren Yarhi-Milo

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780691159157

Published to Princeton Scholarship Online: October 2017

DOI: 10.23943/princeton/9780691159157.001.0001

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The British Intelligence Community’s Assessments of Nazi Germany’s Intentions

The British Intelligence Community’s Assessments of Nazi Germany’s Intentions

(p.102) Chapter 4 The British Intelligence Community’s Assessments of Nazi Germany’s Intentions
Knowing the Adversary

Keren Yarhi-Milo

Princeton University Press

This chapter examines the evolution in the stated beliefs of Britain’s intelligence organizations about the nature and scope of Nazi Germany’s foreign policy plans along with its perceptions of the Germans’ willingness to wield their military capabilities. It evaluates how well the predictions of the selective attention thesis and the competing theses fit the evolution in perceived intentions. It shows that the evolution of the British intelligence community’s collective intentions assessments is most consistent with the predictions of the capabilities thesis and organizational expertise hypothesis. The evidence is inconclusive as to the predictions of the past and current actions hypotheses of the behavior thesis.

Keywords:   intelligence organizations, Britain, Nazi Germany, foreign policy, military capabilities, selective attention, perceived intentions, intentions assessment, capabilities, organizational expertise hypothesis

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