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Nuclear Strategy in the Modern EraRegional Powers and International Conflict$
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Vipin Narang

Print publication date: 2014

Print ISBN-13: 9780691159829

Published to Princeton Scholarship Online: October 2017

DOI: 10.23943/princeton/9780691159829.001.0001

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Deterring Unequally II: Regional Power Nuclear Postures and Crisis Behavior

Deterring Unequally II: Regional Power Nuclear Postures and Crisis Behavior

(p.253) Chapter Ten Deterring Unequally II: Regional Power Nuclear Postures and Crisis Behavior
Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era

Vipin Narang

Princeton University Press

This chapter probes questions regarding how nuclear weapons or nuclear postures affect crisis dynamics, by examining whether there is variation in states' decisions to escalate or de-escalate a crisis as a function of nuclear posture. That is, within a crisis, the chapter considers if some nuclear postures deter states from conflict escalation better than others. In answering this question, this chapter uncovers the mechanisms responsible for the relationship between regional nuclear postures and deterrence outcomes, ensuring that the correlations established in the statistical analysis are not just spurious but are real and causal. To do this, the chapter explores the findings from the large-n analysis in more fine-grained crisis settings.

Keywords:   crisis behavior, crisis dynamics, nuclear postures, conflict escalation, regional nuclear powers, deterrence outcomes, crisis settings

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