Deterring Unequally II: Regional Power Nuclear Postures and Crisis Behavior
Deterring Unequally II: Regional Power Nuclear Postures and Crisis Behavior
This chapter probes questions regarding how nuclear weapons or nuclear postures affect crisis dynamics, by examining whether there is variation in states' decisions to escalate or de-escalate a crisis as a function of nuclear posture. That is, within a crisis, the chapter considers if some nuclear postures deter states from conflict escalation better than others. In answering this question, this chapter uncovers the mechanisms responsible for the relationship between regional nuclear postures and deterrence outcomes, ensuring that the correlations established in the statistical analysis are not just spurious but are real and causal. To do this, the chapter explores the findings from the large-n analysis in more fine-grained crisis settings.
Keywords: crisis behavior, crisis dynamics, nuclear postures, conflict escalation, regional nuclear powers, deterrence outcomes, crisis settings
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