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Brazil in TransitionBeliefs, Leadership, and Institutional Change$
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Lee J. Alston, Marcus André Melo, Bernardo Mueller, and Carlos Pereira

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780691162911

Published to Princeton Scholarship Online: January 2018

DOI: 10.23943/princeton/9780691162911.001.0001

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(p.209) Chapter 8 Conclusion
Brazil in Transition

Lee J. Alston

Marcus André Melo

Bernardo Mueller

Carlos Pereira

Princeton University Press

This chapter offers some conjectures about the future of Brazil, especially in light of recent declarations that the Brazilian miracle has vanished once again. It attempts to reconcile Brazil's current political and economic situation with the more optimistic forecast this volume has set out so far, by using the institutional possibility frontiers (IPF) to interpret this paradox. The IPF illustrates this by showing the trade-offs existing in any country between disorder and dictatorship (authoritarianism) and reveals that a state that has more powers to control disorder also has more for dictatorial abuse. The chapter also returns to the analytical framework already expounded in the previous chapter, and finally predicts Brazil's likelihood for another critical transition to a society more akin to the current developed countries in the world.

Keywords:   Brazilian miracle, institutional possibility frontiers, IPF, inductive framework, critical transition, economic development

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