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The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance$
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Don Harding and Adrian Pagan

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780691167084

Published to Princeton Scholarship Online: January 2018

DOI: 10.23943/princeton/9780691167084.001.0001

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Methods for Describing Oscillations, Fluctuations, and Cycles in Univariate Series

Methods for Describing Oscillations, Fluctuations, and Cycles in Univariate Series

Chapter:
(p.15) Chapter 2 Methods for Describing Oscillations, Fluctuations, and Cycles in Univariate Series
Source:
The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance
Author(s):

Don Harding

Adrian Pagan

Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:10.23943/princeton/9780691167084.003.0002

This chapter investigates the three ways that economic researchers have approached the task of describing the ups and downs in the macroeconomy: oscillations, fluctuations, and cycles. Each has a different way of describing the phenomenon being investigated and summarizing it. These vary depending on the frequency of the data one is working with. Moreover, often many series rather than a single one are used to describe the recurrent pattern. Oscillations refer to the fact that peaks and troughs occur in a regular fashion. Cycles refer to the fact that the ups and downs in economic activity can be seen in a graph as a set of local peaks and troughs. Fluctuations come from the observation that a series showing ups and downs can be said to exhibit volatility.

Keywords:   oscillation, fluctuation, cycles, macroeconomy

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