Methods for Describing Oscillations, Fluctuations, and Cycles in Univariate Series
Methods for Describing Oscillations, Fluctuations, and Cycles in Univariate Series
This chapter investigates the three ways that economic researchers have approached the task of describing the ups and downs in the macroeconomy: oscillations, fluctuations, and cycles. Each has a different way of describing the phenomenon being investigated and summarizing it. These vary depending on the frequency of the data one is working with. Moreover, often many series rather than a single one are used to describe the recurrent pattern. Oscillations refer to the fact that peaks and troughs occur in a regular fashion. Cycles refer to the fact that the ups and downs in economic activity can be seen in a graph as a set of local peaks and troughs. Fluctuations come from the observation that a series showing ups and downs can be said to exhibit volatility.
Keywords: oscillation, fluctuation, cycles, macroeconomy
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