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Dictators and DemocratsMasses, Elites, and Regime Change$
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Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman

Print publication date: 2016

Print ISBN-13: 9780691172149

Published to Princeton Scholarship Online: January 2018

DOI: 10.23943/princeton/9780691172149.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM PRINCETON SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.princeton.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright Princeton University Press, 2019. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in PRSO for personal use.date: 18 October 2019

Modeling Democratic Transitions

Modeling Democratic Transitions

Distributive Conflict and Elite Processes

(p.61) Chapter 2 Modeling Democratic Transitions
Dictators and Democrats

Terence Teo

Princeton University Press

This chapter examines why some democratic transitions were driven by mass mobilization, while others appeared to be predominantly elite processes, with a greater role for international influences as well. It first outlines core theoretical arguments about the way authoritarian regimes and the capacity for collective action influence transitions to democracy before discussing some statistical modeling of transitions during the Third Wave. Contrary to “prairie fire” models of political mobilization, this chapter shows that enduring social organizations play a major role in fomenting the mass protest that drives distributive conflict transitions, particularly unions and ethnonationalist organizations. Moreover, it provides evidence that these factors do not give us purchase in explaining elite-led transitions.

Keywords:   democratic transitions, mass mobilization, authoritarian regimes, collective action, democracy, social organizations, distributive conflict, unions, ethnonationalist organizations, elite-led transitions

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