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Natural ComplexityA Modeling Handbook$
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Paul Charbonneau

Print publication date: 2017

Print ISBN-13: 9780691176840

Published to Princeton Scholarship Online: May 2018

DOI: 10.23943/princeton/9780691176840.001.0001

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Epidemics

Epidemics

Chapter:
(p.198) 9 Epidemics
Source:
Natural Complexity
Author(s):

Paul Charbonneau

Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:10.23943/princeton/9780691176840.003.0009

This chapter examines the complex nature of the epidemic spread of contagious diseases. It first describes the model of epidemic spread constructed by adding random walks on a lattice to the forest-fire model before discussing the implementation of the epidemic “algorithm” using a minimal Python code. It then considers a representative simulation showing a time series of the number of infected and healthy random walkers, along with the behavior of the epidemic spread model and the dynamic self-organization of epidemic surges around a marginal infection rate of exactly unity. It also explores the scale invariance of a small-world network connecting twelve nodes. The chapter includes exercises and further computational explorations, along with a suggested list of materials for further reading.

Keywords:   epidemic spread, contagious diseases, random walk, lattice, Python code, self-organization, infection rate, scale invariance, small-world network, epidemic surges

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