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The Autocratic Middle ClassHow State Dependency Reduces the Demand for Democracy$
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Bryn Rosenfeld

Print publication date: 2020

Print ISBN-13: 9780691192185

Published to Princeton Scholarship Online: May 2021

DOI: 10.23943/princeton/9780691192185.001.0001

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Revolution, Democratic Retrenchment, and the Middle Class

Revolution, Democratic Retrenchment, and the Middle Class

(p.155) 6 Revolution, Democratic Retrenchment, and the Middle Class
The Autocratic Middle Class

Bryn Rosenfeld

Princeton University Press

This chapter provides a background on Ukraine when it was struggling to consolidate democracy. It examines existing theories that expect human capital formation and a growing middle-class to enhance the autocratic middle-class prospects for democratization. By focusing on the case of Ukraine, it also explores whether dependence on the state for economic opportunities and life chances moderates middle-class demands for democratic institutions. The chapter uses a panel survey spanning the Orange Revolution, which assesses how the distinctive political orientations of different groups within the middle-class affected the nature of protest coalitions during Ukraine's 2004 democratic breakthrough. It makes use of a difference-in-differences design to demonstrate that reliance on the state for economic opportunity caused the political preferences of new labor market entrants to diverge.

Keywords:   human capital formation, middle-class, democratization, democratic institutions, Orange Revolution, Ukraine, economic opportunity

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