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Beating the OddsJump-Starting Developing Countries$
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Justin Yifu Lin and Célestin Monga

Print publication date: 2019

Print ISBN-13: 9780691192338

Published to Princeton Scholarship Online: May 2020

DOI: 10.23943/princeton/9780691192338.001.0001

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Reaping the Dividends of Globalization: A Winning Road Map

Reaping the Dividends of Globalization: A Winning Road Map

(p.254) 7 Reaping the Dividends of Globalization: A Winning Road Map
Beating the Odds

Justin Yifu Lin

Célestin Monga

Princeton University Press

This chapter analyzes the conditions needed to design and implement successful special economic zones and industrial parks. It discusses long-term trends and fundamental issues in global trade since trade is the main source of growth for low-income countries that have limited domestic demand. In recent years the story of global trade has often been presented by some economists and development experts as a cause for concern on the export-led growth model that made possible the so-called Asian Miracle that is no longer available for poor countries in Africa or South Asia. But statistics appear to show a turning tide: the value of world merchandise exports rose from $2.03 trillion in 1980 to $18.26 trillion in 2011, equivalent to 7.3 percent growth per year on average in current dollar terms according to WTO trade statistics. But from 2012 to 2014, world trade growth averaged only 2.2 percent, well below the average for the proceeding 20-year period. This has raised the question whether the same shaping factors that have given rise to today's global trade system are likely to continue in the medium and long term.

Keywords:   special economic zone, industrial parks, global trade system, domestic demand, Asian Miracle, Africa, South Asia, world merchandise exports, world trade growth

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